Mass hysteria and the duping of the pilot group.

It's finally come down to it. Your fearless leader Heppner wants you to walk off the property.
1)Do you know what you have been offered?
No.
2)Will you know the results of the strike vote.
No.
3)Did Heppner consult with his peer  before petitioning the NMB for release?
No.
4)Are we working towards a contract?
No.

Those are the facts. I am sure many of you dispute them, so let's take a look at the reasoning of ALPA in each one:

1) ALPA has stated repeatedly that this must be kept secret for negotiating purposes. The company could use the information against us. Fine. There are two inconsistencies with this statement. First, when we walk off the property we are ceasing to negotiate. All bets are off, so there is no point in being coy....unless you don't want the membership to know. Perhaps they might like what was offered and undermine the kamikaze plan?  Second, Pieter Velzeboer (SPSC chair) seemed to have no qualms about disclosing the potential benefit of a false strike vote "voting yes may be the best way to avoid a strike". i.e Say you are going to strike but don't plan  on it. Give the MEC the power and hope they don't use it. What utter rubbish. Gamesmanship with YOUR life. But as a ploy it becomes ineffective if the company knows about it. Which they do as he posted it publicly.
2) Dan Swanson stated that the MEC will decide IF, when and in what manner the results will be publicized. Read between the lines. If it's not overwhelmingly positive, YOU WILL NOT BE TOLD.
3) I am not sure when Heppner would have come clean as quickly as he did were it not for the pressure put on the communications committee by yours truly in publishing the CAL pilots disdainful reaction to Heppner's political move. This was after two weeks of stonewalling by Swanson et. al. at UAL ALPA.
4) Recently I have encountered two ALPA reps. One told me that he had it on good authority that we are seeking to increase the pilot cost from $800 million per annum to $ 2 billion per annum. A 150% cost increase based on pay, retirement and work rule changes. Even the most favorable arbitrator, or the most dispassionate observer would agree that this kind of stance is a demand that can never be met without bankrupting the airline. It is a non starter. (And you wonder why the company is dragging its feet?). The second told me we are seeking what amounted to $800 million in signing bonus'/retro pay.  i.e 60% of all last years profits gone in one swoop. It would be hilarious were it not so dangerous. How accurate these numbers are I have no way of knowing because the reps I pay for will not tell me what I should rightfully know.

ALPA has persistently refused to act in good faith. It has lied to its members. It has never put forward a reasonable offer to the company. It has not told its members a single detail of the pros and cons of the talks. It is conning them into sacrificing their livelihoods for the sake of a mad dream by its chairman.
I predicted this many months ago: That we would be asked to quit our jobs without knowing why. Now the time has come. To vote FOR a strike without knowing what we have been offered is in my mind, insane.
If, indeed, as they claim, the company is dragging their feet then SHOW US! Show us their first offer and show us their current offer. Let us decide. This is a democracy.
But that's what they called Nazi Germany too.

June 15th PREDICTION

Your union leaders will be unable to reach an agreement with management on the contract and will call for release from mediation and a strike.
Why am I so certain of this?
Because they have demonstrated no other desire from the outset of negotiations. From day 1, demanding the United contract as a template, with all is built in inefficiencies (even though it had LESS SCOPE PROTECTION FOR YOU), to the dismissal of management's opener, to the refusal to accept binding arbitration, and now the "End game" fiasco, which is designed to kill any agreement before it is reached, your union leaders have pushed us further down the road toward a strike. Much as I have been chastised and mischaracterised, leading me to the unfortunate position of being the union's antagonist, management has suffered the same fate. A management that would have at some point come to an agreement more acceptable to you is now positioned to dig in its heels with the objective of, along with fiscal responsibility and a sustainable vision for the future, rid itself of the factions within the pilot group that would rather see mutual failure than give any creedance to management's claims.
The junior pilots will suffer the most (as always). Your careers will be over as most of you are among the 50-ish age group and therefore unemployable in this field.
I fully expect the union to commit to the strike, and to maintain it for a substantial period, causing management to hire replacements (which will NOT be furloughed to make room for your return...read the case law).
Your solution to this dilemma is to look at the facts, the history and the behavior of the parties involved, and make your OWN educated decision. Most, unfortunately, will succumb to the comfortable herd mentality in the mistaken belief that "We can't all be wrong".
At least demand from your leaders the full, unedited minutes of the negotiations itemizing what was offered and refused so that you can see what is being demonstrated.
I do not wish any of you ill, but if, by your own free will, you walk off this property never to return, you have my sympathy but not my support.